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    中國啤酒業結束25個月的負增長

    作者: 來源:本站 發表時間:2016/10/21 10:27:34 查看:

    中國啤酒業結束25個月的負增長,這是一個好開始嗎?

    據國家統計局發布的數據顯示,中國8月啤酒產量同比增長4.2%,這意味著中國啤酒業結束了長達25個月的連續負增長。

    《中國酒業》雜志曾在7月底載文指出,7月開始,我國北方的天氣開始變得更為炎熱,而南方的降水也呈現減少的趨勢,我們預計三季度啤酒行業的下跌趨勢有望減緩。

    為什么做出這樣的判斷?

    一是從歷史數據來看,4月份南方大范圍持續降水之后,啤酒產量降幅一直在縮小,4月為-8.6%5月為-5.2%6月為-3.6%7月為-0.8%,離轉正僅一步之遙。

    二是連續三年的不利天氣透支了啤酒的下降空間。該雜志統計了從2011年至2015年全國八個城市每月的降水天數,每月受臺風影響天數和每月氣溫超過30度的天數,并將其與啤酒行業月度產量(近似替代銷量)數據進行相關性分析。他們發現:降水與啤酒銷量的負相關關系最為明顯;氣溫與啤酒銷量呈較強正相關關系;臺風次數與啤酒銷量呈較弱負相關關系。

    過去三年啤酒銷量下滑,盡管人口紅利結束、宏觀經濟減速以及城鎮化影響邊際下降是主要原因,但是20142015連續兩年涼夏2016年二季度南方更是遭遇多年不遇的洪災也對啤酒銷量造成較大不利影響。三年累計下來,估計低端啤酒銷量下滑超過20%,短期超出了經濟、人口、城鎮化等負面因素。

    銷量轉正有什么意義?《中國酒業》雜志認為,這將堅定企業轉型信心,即從搶份額轉向齊升級,這已是大勢所趨:一來啤酒消費進入成熟期,從進口啤酒和中高端啤酒數據來看,消費升級倒逼供給升級,龍頭企業低價爭搶份額已不合時宜;二來啤酒行業競爭格局初步穩定;再者因為股權激勵、股東更換等原因,多數啤酒上市公司改善業績動力提升。

    《中國酒業》雜志表示,啤酒行業是過去十年唯一沒有感受到消費升級甚至出現消費降級的食品飲料子行業,而目前需求升級態勢明顯。國產企業如果及時轉變戰略將可分享行業巨大盈利蛋糕,否則有可能錯失歷史機遇。

     

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