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    7月白酒主要上市公司及產業鏈最新調研報告

    作者:事業部 來源:本站 發表時間:2015/8/13 15:13:59 查看:

        【中國白酒網】近期我們對五糧液、瀘州老窖、*ST 水井、1919 進行了調研,主要觀點如下:

       五糧液:國企改革需求迫切,終端消費良好,價格倒掛有望在中秋前后解決。1) 五糧液在改善決策機制、展開收購兼并和電商業務、捆綁經銷商利益及激發員工積極性等方面對混改均有迫切需求,目前改革的難點在于公司屬于省市兩級管理企業,情況復雜,五糧液作為四川國企改革重點推進企業,需要收到政府明確指令;2)公司終端消費良好,渠道庫存很低,主要問題在于價格倒掛。五糧液目前的出廠價完全可以解決價格倒掛問題,公司計劃利用精細化管理解決大商竄貨問題,同時改革銷售體制、加強監管,期望在中秋前后解決價格倒掛問題,實現量價平衡。
    瀘州老窖:公司產品調整順利,首次提出2015 年77.87 億的銷售目標。1)公司順利完成領導層交接,預期國企改革在短期之內不會實施;2)國窖1573、窖齡酒、瀘州老窖特曲調整比較順利,目前各區域去庫存基本完成,公司今年的目標是國窖1573 終端收入占比在50%以上;3)自五月份來公司一直在梳理國窖1573 價格倒掛問題,目前來看國窖1573 各級價格都在逐步上升。

      *ST 水井:聚焦高端產品,今年銷售目標6個億,保證盈利,未來銷售模式根據市場情況實時調整。1)公司今年將加大力度推出超高端、定制酒,主導思路是高端、超高端發展,目前中高端產品銷量占比98%;2)公司上半年銷量總體較好,目前經銷商庫存比較合理,部分經銷商利潤良好;3)公司目前銷售模式是總代模式+扁平化模式,未來的方向是根據現實情況進行調整。

      1919:O2O 平臺商,打造酒業零售龍頭。1)公司定位于O2O 平臺商,準備收購全球最大葡萄酒電商網站wine.com 和行業內排名第三的電商購酒網,公司今年收入預計超過30 億,將超過20 億規模的酒仙網,成為行業龍頭;2)目前公司擁有500 家直管店,已經覆蓋全國30 來個省份,公司計劃在全國開設5000 家門店,其中90% 屬于直管店,規劃17 年完成,門店將下沉到各地級市,平均3 公里一家門店,直管店投資者主要來自傳統酒類經銷商;3)今年公司零售端毛利率預計14%~16%,目前更注重規模擴張,利潤爆發點在16 年和17 年。

      調研結論:通過對產業鏈中主要上市公司廠家環節的調研,我們認為白酒行業自限制三公消費后基本面最差的時間早已過去,貴州茅臺轉型大眾高端消費后量價自2014 年元旦已經平衡,五糧液和老窖復蘇時間稍微慢些,一旦實現順價銷售,高端白酒的量的恢復會比較快,使得報表端的彈性比較足。結合一些白酒廠今年會加大改革力度,白酒行業重點推薦國企改革后業績改善彈性較大的古井貢、五糧液以及2015 年業績有反轉可能性的瀘州老窖。 風險提示:國企改革進度緩慢,行業競爭加劇超預期。





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