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    2015中國啤酒市場產業競爭分析

    作者:事業部 來源:本站 發表時間:2015/8/13 14:56:24 查看:

    2014 年中國啤酒行業銷量494億升,占全球銷量的26%左右。目前華潤雪花市場份額最大,僅為23%,青島其次為18%,百威第三,達到14%,燕京第四,為11%。嘉士伯第五,5%。從近5 年趨勢來看,除了燕京啤酒的份額是下降的,前幾家份額都一直上升。

    青島啤酒基地市場山東、陜西市場地位不可撼動,同時青島啤酒將兩地附近市場連成串,河北、安徽、江蘇都開始發力,預計未來增量以這些省份為主。未來能夠將啤酒做出價格張力的國企目前來看青啤可能性最大。青啤的管理運營機制在三大國企中最為完善。沿海地區啤酒消費量大,但競爭激烈,基本處于飽和狀態。

    百威前些年通過并購方式進入中國,目前在湖北、福建、黑龍江市場占據龍頭地位,并且在吉林、遼寧、浙江都有不錯市場份額。百威剛進入中國時,以戰略角度并購當地啤酒企業,全部虧損。2014 年開始部分廠扭虧為盈。百威在中國的銷量增速主要在超中高端,夜店、KA渠道增速高達20-50%。

    華潤雪花在遼寧、四川、貴州、安徽、江蘇都處于龍頭地位。公司在2004-2011 年期間收購了大量大大小小啤酒企業,但是有些企業規模過小亦或是戰略不清晰,目前經營不算理想。從區域重合度來看,雪花和百威英博在黑龍江、吉林、遼寧、江蘇、浙江都出現了重合,“戰爭”難以避免。短期來看,百威東北市場的管理團隊出現一定問題,暫時威脅不到雪花。從長期來看,雪花的產品價格張力沒有打開,依靠不計成本搶占渠道的方式不可持續。

    燕京啤酒市場最為集中,主要在北京、廣西、內蒙古市場,其中內蒙古以雪鹿地方強勢品牌為主打,目前來看還算安全。但是從長期看,銷售124 萬噸、占公司利潤2/3 還多的廣西市場存在被競爭對手侵蝕份額的可能。2014 年公開資料顯示百威英博總體計劃在廣西投產100萬噸,一期35 萬噸已經上線,華潤雪花在廣西也有20 萬產能工廠,重慶啤酒在廣西也有20 萬產能工廠。若百威英博將廣西市場提到戰略高度,傾斜資源投放,該市場未來必是血雨腥風。

    第五的嘉士伯通過對國內啤酒企業(重慶啤酒、啤酒花、蘭州黃河等)控股和合資的方式,占領了西部啤酒市場的半壁江山。目前為止,嘉士伯在中國區做的不好,管理層人員變動較大,還未看到發力態勢。

    行業分析認為啤酒行業現在最大的威脅和最可能勝出的是百威,百威在資本優勢(凈利潤率高達20%,凈利潤高達500 多億人民幣)、出色的營銷能力(定位高端,百威子品牌在中國區平均售價在5 元/100ML)、成本控制上都有優勢。

     

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